Price Forecast for Mexican Red Spiny Lobster (Panulirus spp.) Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

The selling price is one of the essential variables in decision making for fishers regarding catching a fishing resource. In case Pacific Mexican lobster fishery, uncertainty at beginning season translates into suboptimal utilization this This work aims to predict export red (Panulirus) using demand-related market including price, main competitors, buyers, and product quantities exported/imported market. We used monthly from 2006 2018 importer, China. As method forecasting, artificial neural networks (ANNs), with without exogenous (NARX, NAR), were as an autoregressive model, while same information was analyzed ARIMAX model comparative purposes. It found that ANNs are useful tool yielded better predictive power when forecasting prices compared models. evaluated by comparing mean square errors (MSE) 15 MSE (73.07) lower than four models (88.1). concluded valuable accurately predicting relative real values, aspect great interest application fishery resource management.